Empirical concentration for chains with infinite memory (arxiv.org)
arXiv:2610.32265v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Concentration inequalities for time series usually involve unknown quantities measuring dependence. This prevents their direct use as confidence bounds, or as criteria for learning algorithms. Recent works proved empirical concentration inequalities for stationary Markov chains, where the unknown quantities are estimated. We extend this approach beyond the Markov case, by considering stationary chains with infinite memory. We first establish a bounded-differences inequality on bounded Polish metric spaces under a summable Wasserstein contraction condition. We then estimate its dependence coefficients from a single trajectory, using either transition counts when the state space is finite, or derivatives of kernel conditional-density estimates for a continuous state space. We give general error bounds and illustrate their dependence on the memory tail. Finally, a fixed multiplicative safety factor turns these estimators into empirical concentration bounds. While some regularity assumptions are required to make the bounds empirical, our procedure remains fully adaptive in the sense that it does not require the knowledge of the constants involved in these assumptions. The empirical confidence bounds derived from our results are asymptotically as tight as the theoretical ones.
Abstract: Concentration inequalities for time series usually involve unknown quantities measuring dependence. This prevents their direct use as confidence bounds, or as criteria for learning algorithms. Recent works proved empirical concentration inequalities for stationary Markov chains, where the unknown quantities are estimated. We extend this approach beyond the Markov case, by considering stationary chains with infinite memory. We first establish a bounded-differences inequality on bounded Polish metric spaces under a summable Wasserstein contraction condition. We then estimate its dependence coefficients from a single trajectory, using either transition counts when the state space is finite, or derivatives of kernel conditional-density estimates for a continuous state space. We give general error bounds and illustrate their dependence on the memory tail. Finally, a fixed multiplicative safety factor turns these estimators into empirical concentration bounds. While some regularity assumptions are required to make the bounds empirical, our procedure remains fully adaptive in the sense that it does not require the knowledge of the constants involved in these assumptions. The empirical confidence bounds derived from our results are asymptotically as tight as the theoretical ones.
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